Democrats Deb Haaland and Gabe Vasquez hold narrow leads in their November races, according to a new Albuquerque Journal poll, as the first early and absentee ballots are cast across New Mexico.
In the governor’s race, Haaland leads Republican Gregg Hull 49% to 42%, with 9% undecided. The margin is little changed from the Journal’s August poll, which had her ahead 49% to 43%. In the 2nd Congressional District, Vasquez leads Republican Greg Cunningham 48% to 44%, with 8% undecided. That lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Haaland’s lead is narrower than her fundraising advantage might suggest. She had raised $17.3 million as of last month, compared with about $1.9 million for Hull, according to Secretary of State records. Pollster Brian Sanderoff, whose firm Research & Polling Inc. conducted the poll, said he was surprised she hasn’t built a bigger lead given the national environment. He said Hull remains unfamiliar to many voters and no conservative-leaning outside group has come to his aid. A Democratic Governors Association-backed committee has launched TV ads tying Hull to President Donald Trump.
The governor’s race splits along party, regional and racial lines. Haaland wins 85% of Democrats, and Hull wins 91% of Republicans. Independents favor Haaland 48% to 34%, with 18% undecided. She leads among Hispanic voters, 53% to 36%, and Hull leads among Anglo voters, 50% to 44%.
Haaland leads in North Central New Mexico (65% to 29%), the Las Cruces/Southwest region (53% to 40%) and the Albuquerque metro area (49% to 40%). Hull leads in Eastern New Mexico (60% to 29%) and the Northwest (52% to 45%). Women favor Haaland 54% to 38%, while men narrowly favor Hull 47% to 44%.
In CD2, one of the most competitive House races in the country, Vasquez leads independents 51% to 34%, with 15% undecided. Trump has endorsed Cunningham. Vasquez had raised about $3.8 million to Cunningham’s $1.5 million as of June 30.
The governor’s poll surveyed 1,125 likely voters Oct. 1-9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The CD2 poll surveyed 383 voters over the same dates. The margin of error is larger for subsamples in both.
Early voting favors Democrats so far. Of 29,786 ballots cast in the first full week of early and absentee voting, 17,545 came from Democrats and 7,971 from Republicans. Another 4,090 came from decline-to-state voters and independents, and 180 came from voters registered with other parties, according to the Secretary of State’s Office. Democrats make up 58.9% of the votes cast so far.
Early voting is open now at county clerk’s offices. Expanded early voting, at additional locations, begins Saturday, Oct. 17, and runs through Saturday, Oct. 31. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. You can find your nearest polling location and view a sample ballot at nmvote.org.
