ALBUQUERQUE – Republican Gregg Hull trails Democrat Deb Haaland by 6 percentage points in the race for New Mexico governor, according to a Peak Insights poll that conservative podcaster and former GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Ronchetti revealed Sunday on his show.
Ronchetti and his wife, Krysty, unveiled the results on the Oct. 18 episode of their podcast, “No Doubt About It,” and shared the polling document with the Sentinel. The Sentinel found no other news outlet that has reported the poll’s results.
The poll of 500 voters, conducted by live call and text Oct. 10-13, found Haaland at 50% and Hull at 44%, with 5% undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
“It’s showing her right at 50,” Ronchetti said, adding that he has never put much stock in that threshold in a race this close. He also said some of the poll’s crosstabs may be “a little bit Republican friendly.”
In line with other polls
The result is consistent with recent public polling. The Albuquerque Journal’s Oct. 11 poll had Haaland ahead 49% to 42% among likely voters, and a KOB 4/SurveyUSA poll had her up 47% to 41%.
Peak’s June survey put Haaland at 48% and Hull at 42%, so the 6-point gap has held. Ronchetti said both candidates have picked up about 2 points as the undecided share fell by roughly 3 points. He said the new poll was taken after the Journal’s.
He also pointed to the poll’s generic ballot question, which asks voters whether they’d choose “the Republican candidate” or “the Democratic candidate” without naming anyone. Democrats led 50% to 43%. Ronchetti said that would have been a 10-point-plus gap before he began his own run in 2022, calling the narrower margin “mildly encouraging.”
Haaland’s base
The most significant number for Hull, Ronchetti said, is the share of each candidate’s own party that supports them. Haaland carries 85% of Democrats, which he called “a low number,” while Hull carries 91% of Republicans.
Ronchetti attributed Haaland’s softer number to Democrats who supported Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman in the primary, a group he called the “Bregman battalion.”
The Journal’s August poll found Haaland with 86% of Democrats and Hull with 89% of Republicans.
Favorability slips for Haaland
Haaland’s favorable rating fell from 49% in June to 47%, while her unfavorable rating rose from 42% to 46%. Ronchetti said voters begin to sour on candidates once they come under attack.
Hull’s favorable rating rose from 41% to 44%, but his unfavorable rating more than doubled, from 18% to 38%. Ronchetti said the earlier 18% was bound to rise once Hull faced attacks. Hull still has a net favorable rating of +6. The share of voters who had never heard of him fell from 22% to 9%.
Ronchetti said Hull’s challenge in the final weeks is convincing voters who don’t know him well, and who don’t love Haaland, to make the jump. Hull has been badly outraised, with Haaland reporting $17.3 million raised this campaign to Hull’s roughly $1.9 million as of last month, according to the Journal.
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is at 47% favorable and 47% unfavorable, unchanged from June. President Donald Trump is at 40% favorable and 59% unfavorable, a point lower than in June.
Early voters
About 8% of respondents said they had already voted. They backed Haaland 75% to 24%. Among voters who have not yet voted, Haaland leads 48% to 45%.
Ronchetti said the early lead is no surprise and warned that election night could open with a Democratic surge from the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas.
He cited Secretary of State’s office figures showing about 37,000 Democrats, or 59% of early voters, have voted so far. Republicans account for about 17,000, or 27%, and independents about 9,000, or 14%. The Sentinel has not independently verified those numbers.
Land commissioner
In the race for commissioner of public lands, Democrat Juan De Jesus Sanchez III leads Republican Michael Perry 48% to 41%, with 9% of not-yet-voted respondents undecided. Perry trails Hull by 3 points, and Sanchez trails Haaland by 2.
Ronchetti said the office is “a sleeper powerhouse” because it oversees state trust land, water and oil and gas leasing. He said Perry has experience in southern New Mexico and “a chance to close” the gap. He described Sanchez as a protégé of U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, though he said some Republicans view Sanchez as someone they could work with.
Sanchez won the Democratic primary with 56% of the vote. Perry, a Chaves County commissioner and former assistant land commissioner, was unopposed.
Oil and gas
The poll found 56% of voters view the oil and natural gas industry favorably, against 37% unfavorably. Ronchetti called that “plus 19,” a solid number for New Mexico.
Congress
The poll document includes no congressional ballot question. On the podcast, Ronchetti instead discussed Thursday’s televised debate between U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Greg Cunningham in the 2nd Congressional District, which Cook Political Report rates as leaning Democratic. A Research & Polling survey conducted Oct. 1-9 showed a 4-point race.
In a clip played on the show, Cunningham pressed Vasquez about a video of him wearing a mask and calling to “defund the police.” Vasquez said he does not support defunding police and acknowledged the video showed him. Cunningham, a former police officer, said Vasquez declined to vote for a House resolution supporting officers during Police Week.
Turnout is the story
Ronchetti cited pollster Frank Luntz’s warning that polls may undercount Republicans, who are less likely to respond. He said “we now have turnout elections.” He said Republicans in southeastern New Mexico must turn out better for Hull than they did for him in 2022, when he lost to Lujan Grisham.
The Cook Political Report rates the governor’s race as leaning Democratic.
Peak Insights polled 500 voters Oct. 10-13. The Sentinel has not independently verified the poll and did not seek comment from the Haaland or Hull campaigns before publication. This story will be updated with any comment.
